Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Tinfoil Hatter's Gold Trap

Knowing that peak oil is a real force of nature, and not something that can even be argued against, one tends to realize that there is trouble on the horizon. Also, it is obvious that both Joe-the-Plumber and his buddy, J6P, will never know and will never be allowed to know and will never care to know what peak oil is and what it means.

Therefore it is logical to assume that there will be a 2nd Great Depression, to mask the effects of peak oil for at least another decade.

I am assuming that Helicopter Ben and Co will not be able to print enough fiat currency to prevent a deflationary collapse. And thus the next 10-15 years will see no net growth in the stock market, similar to 1929-1945 and 1969-1983. In other words, we're entering into the next phase of the ~40 year cycle of boom and bust. My question is, if this indeed happens and history repeats itself a THIRD time, then where do you see gold going? The answer from most people who've seen this crisis coming: "Gold is going to the moon! You're crazy if you don't buy gold!"

Indeed.

But all this talk about $2000-$5000 gold just doesnt make any sense to me. And I'm beginning to wonder if all these seemingly trustworthy people who have been right about everything else are part of an ugly conspiracy to sucker so-called informed people out of their cash. I guess I'll just call it the Tinfoil hatter's gold trap.

It makes sense to me. If I was an elite banker, with billions to invest in the business of suckering people out of their money and covering my tracks, then why would I not go as far as to hire a bunch of goons to go speak truths about the coming crises, only to have them recommend throwing their money away on gold heading to $50 an ounce? It explains a lot of things, doesnt it? Alex Jones talks all the time about why he's still alive when you'd think they'd just whack him or whatever. Well, what if he was approached and told he can talk about whatever he wants, as long as he tells people to buy gold? And they listen to him and buy the gold, and then lose all their money in a depression, along with everyone else. This small investment in 100 media personalities such as Alex Jones, all telling people to go buy gold, would cost no more than a few billion dollars. But it would prevent people in the truth/awakening movement from acquiring capital which can be used to mount an effective resistance. Sounds like money well spent, if I was an elite banker. If you were an elite banker, would you want to see a bunch of well-educated and informed people gaining wealth and thus gaining political power? How much would you pay to prevent that?

I'm not going to point any fingers, I just want to bring to light the possibility that there are people out there spreading truth and useful information, who are allowed complete autonomy in exchange for the small favor of pushing gold. IF things like this are indeed happening, then the only proof you might ever see of it is when someone is right about everything else, but wrong on gold.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

so...where DOES one put one's money?

5:43 PM  
Blogger Iconoclast421 said...

Here is the best advice I can offer. It was written over a month ago, and the strategy was discovered many months ago, but it still apllies:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_L/threadview?bn=51438&tid=313818&mid=360451

Here is the chart of SKF, which you need to know how to read in order to establish a buy price:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p32023304153

I buy as it approaches the 200dma. Right now, anything under 130 is a buy for me. I sell as described in the first link above. The price points may change, but the general strategy is the best that I've found. It also works great for FXP.

The only long I can confidently recommend is DTO. That should be good till March or when oil is under $50, whichever comes first. Note that oil could go to $25 or even $10. But it could also go back up, all depending on the Fed's success at re-flation. They do not have history on their side! It took many years and 5 trillion dollars to build up this bubble that led to $150 oil. Momentum cannot reverse that fast, so I have been strongly betting on oil under $50. Every bubble has to be bigger than the last. So this one needs to be about 8-12 trillion, if the last one was 5 trillion. So unless they run the debt up to about 18-22 trillion, I would not count on reflation happening!

8:26 AM  

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