Thursday, December 11, 2014

Has a Major Top Been Reached?

Back in May 2011 I made a top call for the market. Within 90 days, the S&P500 went down 20%.

It is now that time again. I believe we are much further along in the cycle this time, and that a major decline will be coming much sooner than 90 days. By Jan 15th we should be at least 15% down off the recent highs. 25% is not out of the question. Even if we do go down 25% I am making a note right now that this is only the start. Further declines will be coming, after several rounds of central bank shenanigans.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Oil plummets, but why did it take so long?

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/AAA-Ovi15.png


Notice the timing on that big leg down? It started in the summer of 2013. It took almost a full year for the price of crude oil to begin to mirror that large decline in the number of new wells in the Bakken. Not a very efficient market, eh? Oil should have starting selling off a lot sooner than summer of 2014. This move in oil has been telegraphed for a long time. Everyone either already knows that shale is a pyramid or ponzi scheme, or they are quickly learning. It is a pyramid scheme because those pretty graphs of production from exponentially increasing new wells are used to make it look as if production will continue to increase even when the number of new wells stops going parabolic. But no, that's just a scam to lure investors. As soon as the number of new wells stops increasing, oil production stops increasing and begins to decline, after about a 1-2 year delay.

http://econbrowser.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/hughes_oil3.gif

Yes, that is a 69% annual decline after one year. That is the typical decline rate for the typical horizontally fractured shale well. It sounds incredible, but this is a well known number. It is not like this number is a revelation to anyone who has studied shale oil.

The problem is that we have millions of people frantically seeking yield on billions of dollars of investments in this sector. You can thank the Federal Reserve for that, but that is beside the point. The point is that these people, who know nothing about shale, yet have still been willing to put their money into it, probably have been having a change of heart as they learn how fast these wells decline. Think about it. How can you base 10 year debt on wells that basically only last 2 years. Sure they still produce oil after two years, but come on, 80% of the oil is already gone but only 20% of the debt will have been serviced. It doesn't take a genius to realize that is a scam. The junk debt in this sector is doomed, and there is more than a trillion dollars of it. That is most likely why oil is crashing now.Some time this summer, we reached a 100th monkey moment. Oil has been selling off ever since.

But wait, shouldn't the price of oil rise if shale production is about to plateau and then inevitably decline? In a normal, rational world, it might. But in a world flooded by Fed funny money all bets are off. It is hard for the market to price this dynamic when you have half a trillion in losses looming over this sector. This is going to hurt the economy very badly, since this sector has been the only real source of good jobs in America in this decade.

There will be upward pressure on the price of oil when shale production begins to fall off. But not as much as you would think, because most of the market is just going to assume that the declining production would have been caused by the turmoil occurring right now. It would be erroneous to believe that any decline in shale output is to be blamed on the recent declines in oil price, but I am certain that is how the media will present it. Keep in mind that the graph above clearly shows that the rate of growth in new wells fell off a long long time before oil prices began their cliff dive. It is an interesting chicken vs egg scenario that we should all keep in mind.


Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Dear Salon

In response to the article

“We are starting to break down”: Why so many Americans feel traumatized"


 http://www.salon.com/2014/11/23/we_are_starting_to_break_down_why_so_many_americans_are_badly_traumatized_by_life_partner/


You talk about the 21st century being forged in the images of bodies falling from the towers... but even now, despite the undeniable signs of total breakdown all around, you still will not stand up and say 9/11 was an inside job. Thus you deserve to watch this country and world sink into the abyss, never truly understanding what is really going on here. And really, you have absolutely no clue. It wasnt images of goddam bodies falling. People die all the time. We humans can face death. Many of us have faced it in gruesome ways and have come out ok. So no. It's not the imagery that did it.
 
Why are people traumatized? You dont really know. You have no clue. It amazes me that you people can just go on spewing your vapid garbage and watching this country slowly burn down, but you just will not wake the hell up and realize the obvious.

It's what we did in response 9/11. THAT is what traumatized us. We have collectively committed unspeakable sin of going along with a coup de tat.

You can say what you want about me and my "opinions" on 9/11. I stand by what I know, confident in what I perceive to be correct, based on my understanding of the laws of physics. But I have one thing you will only dream of having: a real understanding of why all these things are happening. I know. I'm not in the frickin dark on this crap, I know exactly why its happening, and it goes right back to 9/11.

We know something really bad happened and is still happening, but we just cant accept it. We are a nation of 8 year old girls being molested by bad men, while the smiling faces on the tube are like parental figures telling us that we are only imagining things, and that we are saying mean things about the bad men merely out of spite. And we just go on accepting the authority of these smiling faces, because we have so little self confidence and so little independence and so little control over our own minds that we just cannot summon the mental fortitude to stand up and say with our own authority that we demand the abuse to stop and are willing to do whatever it takes to stop it.

Events like 9/11 are the cornerstones of the occult system that governs our thoughts and shapes our society. Other events like Oklahoma City, Columbine, TWA 800, Sandy Hook, are also cornerstones. If you do not PERCEIVE these events correctly, you will not understand anything about what controls our society. Therefore you will be helpless and must live in passive resignation, watching the slow burn play out.

Even now, the rate at which this country is being destroyed is rapidly accelerating. Look at Obomnesty. We have 5 million illegals who are now all eligible for work permits, and employers do not have to pay an obamacare penalty if they hire these workers to replace american workers. Given this massive financial incentive, the vast majority of these illegals will replace american workers within just a few short years. And half that income will go to their home countries and will be used to bring 20 million more illegals into this country over the next decade. And while this disgusting saga slowly unfolds in front of your eyes, you will do nothing about it. Except point your fat finger at me and say "conspiracy theorist". You get what you deserve. What did I say about this Obama character before he even took office?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDpLK0e0QoU

Amnesty and social benefits for illegals is part of a long term CFR strategy. It did not start with Obama and will not end with him either. But Obama is perfectly willing to let it happen, and even pretend to not see the long term consequences. I'm sure he sees the consequences, but will do nothing. Just like all you stunted, traumatized, neutered and spayed fools will do nothing about it. Except point your fat finger at me and say "conspiracy theorist".


Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Why Can't I Talk To Her?

Why Can't I Talk To Her?

It is the dilemma that faces most (if not all) young men. Myself included, at that age. Why is it so hard just to talk to a girl? Well, I’ve had 20 years to reflect on my time as a horny teenage boy. In that time, well, let’s just say I have learned a few things.

If you truly want to understand what is going on here then you first have to understand something about conditioning. If you paid attention in school, then you probably remember learning about Pavlov and his dogs. He taught his dogs to salivate (or “lick their chops”) simply by ringing a bell. All he had to do was ring the bell at dinnertime and the dogs quickly learned to associate the sound of the bell with feeding time. Eventually the dogs became trained to lick their chops to the sound of the bell, even when there was no food presented with the sound of the bell.

You’ve probably heard the phrase “men are dogs”. That should be a hint as to where this is going…  Yes I am making the argument that young men have conditioned or trained themselves to have extreme difficulty talking to women.

How does the conditioning work? It’s pretty simple: boy sees girl, boy gets turned on, boy masturbates while thinking about girl. Whether the girl is a real person in his life or a porn star or just some random girl walking down the street doesn’t really matter much. Conditioning is about stimulus and response. The stimulus is the female curves. The response is the orgasm. The more powerful or rewarding the response, the more likely it is that the conditioning will succeed. In the case of masturbation, the reward is an orgasm, which is a very potent reward. A reward of this magnitude ensures that the conditioning will be very effective very fast.

Note that I have not yet actually explained exactly what behavior is being conditioned. This is the critical point of the essay. What is the conditioning? It is not simply a matter of visual stimulation conditioning a boy to masturbate. That much is obvious. This does lead to the objectification of women, which is not a particularly good thing, but it is also not the end of the world either. It is an age-old debate that tends to split the sexes pretty evenly. But this has little to do with why a guy who masturbates cant talk to a girl. If it were that simple I wouldn’t need to be writing about it. There is a lot more to it.

If you’re really horny, and you decide you want to masturbate, what do you always do right before you begin?

Analyze your behavior during these moments. What do you always do?

You make sure you’re alone. You don’t just whip it out in the middle of a crowded room and go to town. You make sure you’re alone. For some reason, it is very important to not get caught. We probably sense on a subconscious level that this isn't the best behavior. We get this sense that we’re probably doing something wrong or perhaps shameful, so we figure it is best to not get caught.

This is the key conditioning that is happening: You have to be alone in order to have sex. That is your conditioning. Conditioning works on a subconscious level. As far as your subconscious is concerned, sex = masturbation = orgasm, it is all the same thing. With a partner, without a partner, it doesn’t matter to your subconscious mind. It is all the same. Remember, the effectiveness of your conditioning depends on the degree of response for the desired behavior. Since the response is an orgasm, the conditioning is going to be highly effective. How many times have you reinforced this conditioning? Dozens? Hundreds? Thousands? When I was 15 I did it on many times a day. When I was 16 I learned that this wasn’t helping me with girls so I slowed way way down. (I was told it makes you too passive. Not inaccurate, but not exactly a complete or satisfying answer.) But the conditioning is so effective that it only takes a few times before it starts affecting your behavior. So don’t go thinking that you don’t have a problem if you’ve only done it a few times in your entire life. Based on everything I’ve learned so far, my best guess is that the average oversexualized American male has had about 1000 solo orgasms by age 18.

So what does all this mean? It means you have to be alone in order to have sex. Whenever you see something sexy you are going to feel the need to masturbate, and therefore you are going to feel the need to be alone. When you are around a girl you like, you’re going to be checking her out. You get turned on just by looking, you cant help it. At that point your conditioning takes over. You have to be alone. You are conditioned to want to get away from her. But when you are with a girl you like, you are trying to act against this conditioning. You want to talk to her. But you just cant. The compulsion to get away is so strong that you cannot think or say anything. On a conscious level you don’t know what is happening. You’re thinking “this girl could bring me unbelievable amounts of pleasure, so why cant I talk to her?” But the conditioning is completely subconscious. What it’s saying is something more like, “this girl is standing in the way of me having sex.” But you don’t see that logic on a conscious level, at least not until now maybe. And if you think about it, maybe you can see the simple animal logic of it. If masturbation is more or less the only sex you’ve ever known, then of course any potential sex partner is, technically, standing in the way. And the simple logical solution is to get away from them.

It’s a huge battle that goes on between your subconscious conditioning (“I need to get away from her”) and your conscious desire (“I want to talk to her and get closer to her”). It is called cognitive dissonance. While this battle is raging inside your head, you come off as creepy or weird because she cant understand what’s going on. If you begin to sense her unease, it just makes things worse. By the time that happens you are now so uncomfortable that you have no choice but to remove yourself from her presence. The conditioning wins.

After this harrowing experience, you lay in bed thinking about what happened. Chances are you are reinforcing the conditioning, if you know what I mean. Perhaps even several times. I remember hanging out with really attractive girls, and as soon as I had some alone time it was not uncommon to get off 4, 5, or even more times than that in a single hour. I’ve heard stories of guys doing it as many as ten times in a single hour. My point is that this rabbit hole goes pretty deep, and if and when you decide you want to climb out, it is going to be very difficult to do so.

What is the solution? How do you break the conditioning? This is the sad part. You probably already know the answer. You have to stop the masturbation. Not because it makes hair grow on your hands. Not because of any of those silly reasons. But because of the way it conditions you to need to be alone in order to have sex.

Unfortunately, it will take more than that to break the conditioning. You need to re-condition yourself. You have to learn to become dependent on a partner for your orgasms. When you depend on someone else in order to get off, then you are no longer compelled to get away from them the moment you get turned on. Stop and imagine what it would be like to talk to a girl when you’ve been conditioned to be dependent on her for your orgasms. You will not want to get away. You will not feel like you don’t know what to say. This is the person who can bring you unbelievable amounts of pleasure. You can tell her anything. You will be totally comfortable around her. She will sense your comfort level.

Women interpret this sense as “confidence”, and they are attracted to it. This is actually a big part of the reason why women fall for men who are clearly just using them for sex. They are attracted to the “need”; the raw desire that comes from being totally dependent on a partner. They can see it in a man’s eyes, clear as day. They can also see a lack of need, just as clearly. Obviously they do not consciously process what they see. On a conscious level, it only surfaces as a feeling. If you are a frequent wanker, then when a woman looks into your eyes, her subconscious mind will identify you as someone who doesn’t “need” her. This will result in an instantaneous lack of attraction, if not outright repulsion. On a primitive biological level, I hope you can see how and why our species had to evolve this way.

Needless to say you are going to need help if you want to recondition yourself. If you read this far then you know what needs to be done. All you need to do is explain your situation to a potential partner, and ask them to help you become dependent on another person for your orgasms. It doesn’t have to be intercourse. In fact it shouldn’t involve intercourse. Just whatever it takes to get off.

There is a way to speed up your reconditioning. Visual stimulation is the predominant method of arousal for a young male. Every time you look at female curves, it causes an immediate hormonal reaction. Sperm and semen production increase. When you look at a sexually attractive female, you instantly feel a sensation down below. That is the feeling of your body preparing itself for sex. But sex is about more than being visually stimulated and then getting off. You have been conditioned to understand sex as being simply all about getting turned on through visual stimulation and then getting off. In that paradigm, the female is merely an object of desire.

The visual aspect of sex really does serve to objectify women. You should desire to break this conditioning as well, since it will help you break the other conditioning much faster. You need to recondition yourself not only to become dependent on a partner for your orgasms, but also to be dependent upon physical contact and an emotional connection rather than just visual stimulation. This is of course really easy to do. Just make sure there is plenty of talking and touching before you finally are allowed to orgasm.

If you fail to break this conditioning then I’ll tell you what lies ahead for your future. You are going to have difficulty talking and relating to women well into your twenties. You are going to find yourself in a bar or at a party or someplace like that, getting drunk and using the alcohol to remove your inhibitions so you can actually talk to her. And then the next day you are going to wake up next to her and you’ll run out the door. Or, if fate demands it, you will enter into a relationship with her. And because that relationship was consummated more or less at random, and under the influence of mind altering substances, there is very little chance of a real true lasting emotional connection forming. The relationship will most likely fail, possibly leading to a financially devastating divorce and a shattered family. And you will pass that on to whatever children happen to be unwitting participants in it. Take a good look at our society, particularly the rates and trends in divorce, and ask yourself, do you really want to be a part of that?

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Ferguson, USSA

What is really behind the "civil unrest" in Ferguson? Is it about one black man being gunned down by police? Or is it something else:

http://www.newsweek.com/ferguson-profiling-police-courts-shooting-264744

The key quote:

“Despite Ferguson’s relative poverty, fines and court fees comprise the second largest source of revenue for the city, a total of 2,635,400,” according to the ArchCity Defenders report. And in 2013, the Ferguson Municipal Court issued 24,532 arrest warrants and 12,018 cases, “or about 3 warrants and 1.5 cases per household.”

3 warrants per household? Every year????  That is exactly the kind of outrageous sort of abuse that could easily result in a city being burned to the ground.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

The Fruits of US Foreign Policy

The war in Iraq was so bad for so many reasons, many of which most people already understand. But the subsequent occupation took the insanity to a whole new level. Who remembers the pallets of cash that vanished in Iraq? All the money that just disappeared?

And then in an even greater attempt at pure folly, someone thought it would be a good idea to train the Iraqis to defend themselves, so that we could bring the troops home. This was actually a talking point at one point. What a great idea!

Except that it was a colossally stupid idea. Who were we training? Who were we dumping all that money on? How could we possibly expect them not to roll over in a few years after enough arms and supplies have been built up in the region? And low and behold, that's exactly what has happened. One of Iraq's largest cities has fallen, without resistance. They just rolled over and gave al qaeda god knows who hundreds of millions in cash and we can only speculate on the amounts in arms. This is by far the biggest blunder in this farce that is called the "war on terror". Need I remind you that 9/11 was supposedly funded with just a small fraction of the money that has been captured in Iraq in the last month alone?

So now we have potential terrorist groups with access to enough funds to sponsor a hundred 9/11s. We have no idea where that money is going to go, or how it will be used, to say nothing of the weapons. And if you've read my writings on steganography, you already know that the NSA cant do a damn thing to intercept communications of those who use steganographic encryption. The amount of money that has the potential to blowback onto the american people is increasing exponentially. It is only a question of how, when, and at what point the american people demand that this folly be stopped.

We know that the US government has been directly implicated in arming the enemy in Libya. But this takes it to a whole new level. What do you call it when you invest billions of dollars arming a country like Iraq, when you know damn well they will just roll over when pushed, and hand over all that we foolishly gave them? What do you call that? Washington may think they used plenty of CYA ointment for this little debacle, but I dont see it that way. The proper people need to be held responsible for this predictable chain of events, as well as the consequences bound to follow.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Whatsup with WhatsApp?

Anyone with a fair amount of common sense knows that we're well into another euphoric market bubble, brought to you once again by the innocent Federal Reserve that pretends it doesnt know that $$trillions of money printing creates bubbles. And of course when the bubble pops, they then claim they couldnt see it. Even when its so obvious you have to be criminally negligent to not see it.

It's not their job to see. It is their job to make the rich into the very rich, and to smear the poor with a cloud of academic bullcrap. This cloud of bull is spewed upon the masses in the hope that it will cover up the screwjob being worked over on the masses right now. Again, anyone with common sense knows this is how money and power works and has worked for a very long time. I'm not really covering any new ground here.

What is really interesting is when the free market offers one of those rare glimpses into the motivations of the very wealthy. What I am arguing is that the market's valuation of WhatsApp is one of these rare glimpses.

Again, anyone with common sense knows that a messaging app can never generate enough revenue to justify that kind of market value. You just cannot generate that kind of revenue from messaging, not even if everyone on the planet used the app. There is no way people would tolerate the absurd intrusions required in order to generate revenue. Would you use an IM app if a video advertisement popped up and you had to watch or click through it just to read your IM? Hell no, or not for long anyway. Someone you know would find a free alternative, of which there are already many. And then they would get you to download it. And quite rapidly that would be the end of $19 billion in market value.

Rest assured, the people who decided WhatsApp was worth $19 billion know damn well everything I just said. They know the IP of a messaging app isnt and cannot possibly ever be worth $19 billion.

So what is worth $19 billion? The answer is very simple, and extremely obvious:

Your data. Your messages. Everything you say. So they can use it against you.

I always knew that the communications data of the masses, the plebs, was worth a great deal to them. This is one of those moments where the market truly illustrates just how much these people want to know what the masses are thinking. It shows that they know what they are doing. It shows they know that their monetary and fiscal policies are utterly wrecking the poor and middle classes. It shows that they know they are in fact robbing the hell out of the poor to pay for their toys. Look at the stocks charts of rich man toy companies like TSLA, and compare that to flatlined employment charts going back 15 years.

Lord yes, they know that people are eventually going to wake up and get mad. So much so that they are willing to spend $19 billion just to get a glimpse of what the masses are thinking. Who does that? Who cares that much? The guilty. That's who.